Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 00:47:23

ACUS01 KWNS 310047
SWODY1
SPC AC 310045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts
of the central and southern Plains region.

....01z Update...

Western US trough is progressing steadily east this evening with one
piece of this feature ejecting into western WY/northwest CO. LLJ is
strengthening over the Plains in response, with warm advection now
focused along a corridor from central NE-southern MN. Additionally,
boundary-layer moisture is increasing into an associated baroclinic
zone with 50s surface dew points impinging on the wind shift across
eastern NE. While 00z sounding from LBF was notably dry/stable, very
steep mid-level lapse rates have spread across this region. Isolated
robust convection should continue to evolve along/north of the
stationary boundary this evening with an attendant threat for large
hail. Reference MCD #386 for more information.

Farther south, a cluster of convection evolved over the southern
Plains earlier today and is now spreading into the Ozarks. This
activity is moving into a drier air mass so the threat of severe
immediately downstream appears low at this time. However, late in
the period large-scale forcing should weaken inhibition currently
observed on 00z OUN sounding. There is some concern that convection
may develop ahead of the boundary after 09-10z as it encounters more
moist/buoyant environment near the Red River into central OK.
Forecast soundings support supercell development if updrafts are
able to organize.

...Darrow.. 03/31/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.