Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0385
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 30 2023 20:02:51

ACUS11 KWNS 302002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302002=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma to western Arkansas and far
southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 302002Z - 302200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms are expected to slowly increase in
coverage and intensity through the remainder of the afternoon across
eastern Oklahoma into adjacent portions of western Arkansas and
southwest Missouri. While a few large hailstones are possible, this
threat should remain too limited for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaics have shown a gradual
increase in convective cells over northern TX into southern OK over
the past hour. Lightning associated with this activity has steadily
trended upward within the past 30 minutes as cloud top temperatures
cool in IR imagery. This suggests that more robust convective
initiation is likely underway and/or is imminent as lift continues
within a zone of strong warm advection between 850-700 mb. 18 UTC
soundings from OUN and FWD show around 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE with
effective bulk shear values around 30 knots. This environment is
supportive of organized cells capable of severe hail, though recent
reflectivity trends hint that thunderstorm clustering/storm
interactions may modulate storm longevity and intensity to a degree
- likely due to deep-layer shear vectors oriented along the zone of
ascent. The expectation is for an increase in coverage of this
activity as the zone of mid-level ascent shifts to the northeast
into western AR and southwest MO this evening with a few strong to
severe cells. Given the modest thermodynamic environment and limited
potential for long-lived discrete convection, watch issuance is not
anticipated.

...Moore/Hart.. 03/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-TUP5wwl6Um_s55Bmm3HL4AHc2rfoONbAiWDUgOg3aAlHadWaGwHTuoxzRw6LJfITPI3qy3Uh=
95hGrO-_3wvQHPlOFM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33589482 33519696 33599747 33789786 34149815 34629825
            35109815 35409787 36989538 37199491 37229441 37149403
            36809346 36399308 35649303 34979307 34679315 34229340
            33979371 33829417 33589482=20


=3D =3D =3D
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