Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 30 2023 07:20:17 ACUS03 KWNS 300720 SWODY3 SPC AC 300719 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK... ....SUMMARY... Strong, isolated severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of eastern Ohio into western New York Saturday morning and early afternoon. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms producing strong gusts and a tornado or two are possible across parts of the Southeast and eastern Carolinas through the afternoon. ....Synopsis... An intense upper low and attendant trough will be located over the upper Great Lakes/Midwest Saturday morning. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will spread eastward from the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes during the morning and shift east, moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts by 00z. A deep surface low centered over northern Lower MI/southern Ontario will shift northeast through the period, sweeping a cold front eastward across the Ohio/TN Valleys during the morning and moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during by late afternoon into the evening. ....Eastern OH into Western NY... A band of precipitation and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday morning from central/eastern NY southwestward along the Appalachians. Clearing behind these showers is expected through the morning. As the upper low/trough impinges on the area, steepening mid and low-level lapse rates are expected amid strong deep-layer southwesterly flow. Boundary-layer mixing to around 850 mb is forecast, with winds at that level near 50 kt. While surface dewpoints will likely only be in the mid 40s to low 50s, steep midlevel lapse rates and temperatures warming to near 60 F will foster MLCAPE values around 250-500 J/kg. As a result, convection is expected to develop from late morning into the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. ....Southeast to the Eastern Carolinas... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday morning ahead of the east/southeastward-advancing cold front. There may be a lull in severe potential during the morning with some increasing through the day as the cold front surges. Mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints but modest midlevel lapse rates will result in MLCAPE values around 750-1250 J/kg amid moderate to strong vertical shear. Stronger large-scale ascent will be focused well north of the region, but strong to isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts and a tornado or two appear possible through the afternoon hours. ...Leitman.. 03/30/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .