Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 30 2023 00:50:45

ACUS01 KWNS 300050
SWODY1
SPC AC 300049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

....01z Update...

Several notable mid-level troughs are progressing across the CONUS
this evening. One low-latitude feature is digging east-southeast
toward the FL Peninsula. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms continue
across south FL where buoyancy is appreciable, along with steep
lapse rates. However, much of this activity has moved off the south
FL Atlantic Coast and any lingering inland convection should
eventually move offshore as well. Locally gusty winds are the
primary concern with these storms.

Upstream, mid-level closed circulation is located roughly 90 miles
west of SFO. This feature will dig southeast tonight as 90+kt 500mb
speed max translates inland along the southern CA Coast by the end
of the period. Cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates are
contributing to weak buoyancy just ahead of a cold front that
currently arcs from near the SFO Bay, off the southern CA Coast. An
elongated band of convection is noted ahead of this boundary with
some lightning evident in the deeper updrafts. Even so, instability
appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk of severe tonight.

...Darrow.. 03/30/2023

$$

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