Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 29 2023 16:32:13 ACUS01 KWNS 291632 SWODY1 SPC AC 291630 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ....South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms should develop along both sea breezes during the late afternoon and may converge over the Everglades by early evening. Relatively modest low-level moisture and weaknesses in mid-level lapse rates per 12Z observed Miami/Key West soundings should hold MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg. A couple of the strongest updrafts may produce gusty winds and small hail across the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula. ....Lee of the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes will take on a negative tilt as it progresses across the Saint Lawrence Valley through Thursday morning. This will result in cyclogenesis over Quebec with a sharpening cold front trailing across southern Ontario, and pushing east in New York/Pennsylvania during the late afternoon and evening. Buoyancy will be minimal (MLCAPE <=100 J/kg) ahead of the front owing to surface dew points in the 20s. But the strengthening large-scale ascent should support a high-based, low-topped band of convection along the front. Increasing low-level flow behind the front will be mixed to the surface and yield gusty winds. Graupel and even a snow squall will be possible as temperatures tumble. ....Central/Southern California... The closed upper low off the coastal of northern California this morning will spread south-southeastward toward the central California coast through tonight. A few stronger low-topped thunderstorms could occur near the north-central Coast this afternoon and/or across the central Valley late this afternoon, pending cloud breaks/modest destabilization. For southern California, it still appears that severe-weather potential will remain low given the limited low-level moisture influx and weak destabilization inland. ...Guyer/Moore.. 03/29/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .