Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 29 2023 12:44:11

ACUS01 KWNS 291244
SWODY1
SPC AC 291242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Thursday.

....South FL...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop along both sea breezes during
the late afternoon and may converge over the Everglades by early
evening. Relatively modest low-level moisture and weaknesses in
mid-level lapse rates per 12Z MFL/KEY soundings should hold MLCAPE
AOB 1000 J/kg. A couple of the strongest updrafts may produce gusty
winds and small hail across the southern portion of the peninsula.

....Lee of the Lower Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes will take on a
negative tilt as it progresses across the Saint Lawrence Valley
through tomorrow morning. This will result in cyclogenesis over QC
with a sharpening cold front trailing across southern ON and pushing
east in NY/PA during the late afternoon and evening. Buoyancy will
be minimal (MLCAPE AOB 100 J/kg) ahead of the front owing to surface
dew points in the 20s. But the strengthening large-scale ascent
should support a high-based, low-topped band of convection along the
front. Increasing low-level flow behind the front will be mixed to
the surface and yield gusty winds. Graupel and even a snow squall
will be possible as temperatures tumble.

...Grams/Goss.. 03/29/2023

$$

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