Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 29 2023 07:37:49 ACUS03 KWNS 290737 SWODY3 SPC AC 290736 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-SOUTH... ....SUMMARY... Potentially intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging gusts and tornadoes will be the main hazards with this activity. ....Arklatex to the Mid-MS Valley and eastward to the OH/TN Valleys... Widespread, regional episode of severe thunderstorms is possible on Friday. An intense mid/upper trough is forecast to eject eastward across the Plains to the central U.S. on Friday. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will accompany this system, with a 100+ kt 500 mb jet expanding over much of the Midwest. As the upper trough deepens during the afternoon and evening, a 60-70 kt southwesterly low-level jet will overspread much of the risk area. These flow fields will favor a fast-moving squall line shifting across the Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South toward the Lower OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, strong southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward. Near-60 F dewpoints are expected as far north as eastern IA to northern IL and then central IN as the surface low tracks east/northeast from IA early in the day, to southern Ontario by Saturday morning. While some questions remain regarding moisture with north and east extent into the OH Valley, forecast soundings indicate at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE will exist during the evening as far east as the I-65 corridor in KY/TN. Given intense flow fields, a threat for damaging gusts will persist from MO/IA into the Lower OH Valley. Across IA/MO, initial supercell development is possible near the surface low/triple point. Fast moving storms may produce possibly significant damaging gusts and tornadoes. Upscale growth into a QLCS is expected to occur rapidly given strong forcing/vertical shear. Further south into the Mid-South and vicinity, large-scale ascent will be somewhat weaker further removed from the upper trough. However, flow fields will remain intense and a mixed mode of supercells and linear convection is expected. All severe hazards (damaging gusts, tornadoes and isolated hail) are expected by late afternoon into the evening hours. ...Leitman.. 03/29/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .