Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 29 2023 07:15:46

FOUS30 KWBC 290715
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Mar 29 2023 - 12Z Wed Mar 29 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

No changes were made to the Marginal Risk area inherited from
yesterday's Day 2 ERO. The atmospheric river impacting California
will slide southward into Southern California early on Wednesday
and orient the axis of highest atmospheric moisture content
(400-500 kg/m*s) orthogonal to the mountain ranges of SoCal. Snow
levels are expected to be up to 6000 ft across SoCal as well,
until crashing Wednesday night and remaining below 4000 ft for
much of the state during the Day 2 period. Rainfall rates may
briefly peak at 0.25-0.5"/hr while relatively quick moving across
the southern part of the Marginal Risk, but saturated soils could
support a localized flooding/rapid runoff threat.

The second phase of the Marginal Risk (mainly across central CA,
but eventually sliding into the Transverse Ranges) involves the
vertically stacked strong polar upper-level low sliding across the
region. A secondary convergence axis wrapped around this low along
with steeping lapse rates and a subtle layer of instability
(MUCAPEs up to 500 J/Kg) will contain scattered convective showers
capable of containing localized heavy rainfall rates. Per the the
global and CAM guidance, this convergence axis and areas of
scattered showers starts near the central CA coast and Sacramento
Valley this morning and towards midday, then will slide down the
central CA coast and into the Transverse Ranges during the
afternoon and evening. Total QPF amounts during this entire time
period are not that impressive alone, however isolated 2-4" totals
across the overly-saturated ground may lead to localized flooding
concerns.

Hurley


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5N51NEvREhkQYk5cNXIUnKZCvMtBeje4Qge_jnSlpvUU=
IdhjLWRY-h9jLVpp8XF-WogSBZLarkzrvmtqGrpgkECayF0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5N51NEvREhkQYk5cNXIUnKZCvMtBeje4Qge_jnSlpvUU=
IdhjLWRY-h9jLVpp8XF-WogSBZLarkzrvmtqGrpgXhI0s6U$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5N51NEvREhkQYk5cNXIUnKZCvMtBeje4Qge_jnSlpvUU=
IdhjLWRY-h9jLVpp8XF-WogSBZLarkzrvmtqGrpg0nGdAkk$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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