Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 29 2023 05:30:41

ACUS01 KWNS 290530
SWODY1
SPC AC 290529

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible today across parts of the
Northeast, in south Florida, south Texas and in parts of the western
states. No severe threat is expected.

....DISCUSSION...
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place across the
eastern third of the nation today. Within this regime, a shortwave
trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes region, where the
pattern will be more amplified. In the base of the trough, a 75 to
90 knot mid-level jet will move east-southeastward into the
Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward into the lower Great Lakes. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints are forecast to remain in the 20s and 30s F, with
surface temperatures only heating up into the 40s F. Even still,
this should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development along or
just ahead of the front this afternoon. Although a severe threat is
not expected, gusty winds will be possible along the leading edge of
the frontal convection that moves eastward across northern
Pennsylvania and New York. No threat area has been added, mainly due
to the position of the mid-level jet which is forecast to be south
of the area with the best convective potential.

Elsewhere across the U.S., isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop in south Florida this afternoon. Although a strong wind gust
or two could occur, the threat is forecast to remain sub-severe. Out
West, thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon and
evening, to the east of an upper-level low from California into
parts of the Intermountain West. These storms should also remain
below severe limits.

...Broyles/Weinman.. 03/29/2023

$$

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