Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 28 2023 19:56:16 ACUS01 KWNS 281956 SWODY1 SPC AC 281954 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA.... ....SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and some hail will remain possible into the evening across portions of the Southeast. ....20z Update... An isolated risk for damaging winds and hail will continue across portions of the FL Panhandle/northern Peninsula and far southern GA into this evening. An amalgamation of short line segments and clusters of strong, and occasionally severe storms should remain along and south of I-10 through the next several hours. The environment to the north will gradually be undercut by a southward advancing cold front near the FL/GA state line as storms approach the Atlantic coast. While confidence in severe storms is not overly high, 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-40 kt of effective shear should continue to support an isolated severe risk into this evening. The Marginal risk and surrounding general thunder have been trimmed where storms are no longer expected. Farther west across portions of western and central TX, isolated elevated thunderstorms will remain possible overnight with a passing shortwave trough. Activity should remain sporadic with marginal buoyancy, and severe weather is not expected. ...Lyons/Jewell.. 03/28/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023/ ....Coastal Southeast... A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms, seemingly aided by an MCV, are ongoing across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia as of midday. Preceding cloud breaks are noted across northern Florida into southern Georgia coincident with upper 60s/lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Further destabilization (upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) should be conducive for an uptick in convective intensity this afternoon, with some measure of storm organization with aid of 40+ kt effective shear. Some of the storms may produce isolated damaging winds and possibly some hail as they spread east-southeastward this afternoon. Storms should shift offshore and/or weaken by around sunset. ....Deep South Texas... Severe potential should continue to diminish and remain low owing to the influx of cooler/drier post-frontal air. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .