Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0382
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 28 2023 18:09:08

ACUS11 KWNS 281809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281808=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-282015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Areas affected...Central/Eastern FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281808Z - 282015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible across the central
and eastern FL Panhandle this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows the cluster of thunderstorms
gradually moving eastward across the FL Panhandle has become
slightly more organized along its outflow. This trend is likely to
continue as the outflow continues pushing eastward into the moist
and unstable air mass downstream across the central FL Panhandle.
Cloud cover preceding the line will temper diurnal heating, likely
keeping low-level lapse rates below 7 deg C per km and potentially
mitigating some of the threat for damaging gusts.

Surface analysis also reveals a modifying outflow boundary extended
west to east from about 20-25 miles west-northwest of TLH to near
JAX. Thunderstorm coverage has increased north of this boundary over
the past hour, likely confining any severe risk to its immediate
vicinity and south.=20

All of these factors suggest the severe threat should remain
isolated, with water-loaded downdrafts as the primary risk. This
limited risk will likely preclude the need for watch, but convective
trends will still be monitored closely.

...Mosier/Guyer.. 03/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!800IPFQgebPTplmJUYZ83ou5ZqVhRKP8_U2gubyAOYyHJ4tgcnQrglo7qhjruE4W7MCZxMBTi=
uRa39G5FJRdRRkHvRg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30798611 31068571 31048457 30888352 30188325 29538354
            29918633 30798611=20


=3D =3D =3D
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