Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 28 2023 12:50:38

ACUS01 KWNS 281250
SWODY1
SPC AC 281248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are expected through this
afternoon across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast.

....Central Gulf Coast to the  South Atlantic Coast...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along a quasi-stationary front
from the northwest Gulf to southwest GA. See MCD 381 for near-term
discussion along the Central Gulf Coast. The western portion of this
front will accelerate southward today, while the eastern portion
accelerates southeast later today into tonight. Given the degree of
ongoing convection, which is largely expected to linger, the bulk of
diurnal destabilization should be confined to north FL and the
peninsula, with limited surface heating to the northwest. Still,
some uptick in thunderstorm coverage is expected around midday along
eastward-propagating outflows into southern AL/GA and north FL.

Predominately westerly and modest low-level wind profiles suggest
that 0-3 km SRH will remain weak. But favorable speed difference
with height should still maintain effective bulk shear around 40 kt.
This will support occasional mid-level rotation in the more robust
updrafts and yield a threat for sporadic/isolated severe hail and
damaging winds until convection shifts off the South Atlantic Coast
and/or weakens towards early evening.

....Deep South TX...
The remnant right-split of a pair of supercells that formed a couple
hours ago within a low-level upslope flow regime just west of LRD
may persist slowly southeastward this morning. A couple additional
cells may develop over northeast Mexico and graze the Lower Rio
Grande Valley as well. Large hail will be the primary hazard, with
this threat diminishing towards early afternoon as elevated buoyancy
wanes.

...Grams/Goss.. 03/28/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.