Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0381
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 28 2023 12:42:08

ACUS11 KWNS 281242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281241=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-281345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Louisiana...southern
Mississippi...and southwestern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281241Z - 281345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms -- capable of producing
severe-caliber hail -- will continue over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending
from near the Alabama/Mississippi Gulf Coast westward across the
vicinity of Lake Pontchartrain, and then southwestward off the
southwestern Louisiana coast.  Primarily to the north of this
boundary, strong storms -- with a few occasionally producing
marginally severe hail -- are ongoing.=20=20

Model forecast soundings suggest sufficient elevated CAPE --
confirmed by the morning LCH RAOB showing around 1000 J/kg and
around 2000 J/kg from LIX.  Given speed shear around 30 kt in the
cloud-bearing layer, a few stronger storms -- perhaps with weak
mid-level rotation -- will persist for the next few hours, spreading
gradually eastward with time.  However, given the modest kinematic
environment, maximum hail size should remain limited to roughly the
1" to 1.5" range.  As such, a limited number of the more intense
updrafts -- which has thus far precluded the need for WW issuance --
should remain the case over the next few hours.

...Goss/Grams.. 03/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5W933Qy40Obz_8RtCOu91e88QnugBvKpqoc2pkZSKEy-XUtuJZ52srfzacMUCM2dcltgCPGfC=
2-tQvczGwSgXxqQUEA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31339085 31689032 31898836 31608777 30568795 30168995
            30439056 30769093 31339085=20


=3D =3D =3D
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