Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 28 2023 05:11:33

ACUS02 KWNS 280511
SWODY2
SPC AC 280510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

....Synopsis...

A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected to evolve on
Wednesday. An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will shift
east/northeast, mostly offshore the Atlantic coast by Thursday
morning, except over New England. Further west, an upper ridge will
build over the Plains. A closed upper low and attendant trough shift
south/southeast along the Pacific coast, eventually becoming
oriented over the northern Rockies and western Great Basin and CA.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
central/southern FL Peninsula as a cold front sags southward.
Heating of a seasonally moist airmass with result in modest
instability. However, a combination of poor midlevel lapse rates,
little frontal convergence and weak large-scale ascent will limit
organized severe potential. Additional thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of central/southern CA as midlevel cooling
steepens lapse rates as the upper low/trough moves inland.
Instability is expected to remain meager (generally less than 200
J/kg MUCAPE). Vertical wind profiles could briefly support some
transient organized updrafts, but limited instability and weak
low-level and effective shear should limit any severe potential.

...Leitman.. 03/28/2023

$$

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