Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0380
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 28 2023 04:49:34

ACUS11 KWNS 280449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280449=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-280645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 280449Z - 280645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated intense thunderstorm has become better
organized and may persist another few hours, posing a continuing
risk for large hail, with perhaps at least some potential for a
brief tornado or damaging downburst.

DISCUSSION...Weak low-level level warm advection and convergence
appear to be contributing to the maintenance of isolated intense
convection along a weak near-surface confluence zone across
southeastern Louisiana into adjacent portions of the Gulf of Mexico.
In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, the cell has recently
become at least a bit better organized, aided by inflow of
seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by mixed-layer
CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg.=20=20

It appears that this cell probably will persist at least another
couple of hours, posing a continuing risk for large hail while
slowly propagating southeastward.  A brief tornado, or potentially
damaging downburst might not be out of the question.

...Kerr/Edwards.. 03/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-NhHxp3uyeL1k2MsxOcWfKtB48VP98KfkgcApy-OJopnjFbyGvLkZqpvGITkd91vQxrh55Q9s=
bfHtqW3tQUsfOfobaQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30758945 30798882 30398836 30358860 30318931 30608971
            30758945=20


=3D =3D =3D
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