Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0379
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 28 2023 04:13:35

ACUS11 KWNS 280413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280413=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-280645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Areas affected...Parts of mid/upper Texas coastal areas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 280413Z - 280645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development appears probable
through 1-3 AM CDT.  This may include a few developing supercell
structures which may become capable of producing at least marginally
severe hail.  It is not clear that a severe weather watch is needed,
but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...While low amplitude mid-level troughing within the
primary belt of mid-latitude westerlies passes by well to the north
(across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri Valley), a much
more subtle perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins is
progressing east of the Texas Big Bend toward mid/upper Texas
coastal areas.  Weak lower/mid tropospheric warm advection
downstream of this feature already appears to be contributing to at
least some increase in convective development across the coastal
plain.  This probably will continue, with substantive further
intensification possible during the next few hours with
strengthening forcing for ascent aloft.

Lower levels remain fairly moist, with Rapid Refresh forecast
soundings indicating steep enough lapse rates aloft to support
sizable CAPE (1000-2000+ J/kg for most unstable parcels).  However,
even where surface dew points are near 70F in close proximity to the
coast, developing thunderstorm activity may remain mostly rooted
above a fairly deep saturated near-surface layer with stable lapse
rates.   Additionally, environmental wind fields within the
potential inflow layer are forecast to remain rather weak.
Even so, shear through the elevated convective layer is strong and
supportive of supercell structures, in the presence of thermodynamic
profiles which appear conducive to the development of at least
marginally severe hail in stronger storms.

...Kerr/Edwards.. 03/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5dQSSjVWE8UHHSZSffQY5uJRbpWPK4RT-VIIa9PnKDE-IyDv6kKRCxw3IBRK8EFa3_25KpJLa=
AIKGWzWenzThBFDr9U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29429715 30159560 30669356 29509271 28689414 28199667
            29429715=20


=3D =3D =3D
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