Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 28 2023 01:02:02 ACUS01 KWNS 280101 SWODY1 SPC AC 280100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the the northwest and central Gulf Coast tonight. ....Synopsis... A belt of strong and largely zonal flow extends from northern NM east to the lower OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic states tonight. Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a disturbance over the central High Plains and this feature will move to the lower MO Valley by early Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a residual frontal zone is draped west to east across the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast states. A cold front over the southern Great Plains will overtake this boundary later tonight, with the composite boundary surging southward into south TX and the northwest Gulf of Mexico by daybreak. Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will probably develop tonight along the boundary from the Edwards Plateau and central TX eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Localized wind damage may occur near the central Gulf Coast with the stronger storms. However, the primary severe risk will be isolated large hail. Removed the Edwards Plateau from low-severe probabilities based mainly on a notable warming of 500-mb temperatures and weakened mid-level lapse rates compared to earlier this morning (i.e., reference the 12 UTC to 00 UTC DRT lapse rate change). ...Smith.. 03/28/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .