Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0378
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 27 2023 22:07:02

ACUS11 KWNS 272206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272206=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-280030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southern LA into far southwestern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272206Z - 280030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe storm or two capable of
marginally severe hail and/or a damaging gust is possible this
afternoon/evening. Watch not expected.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (upper
60s/lower 70s surface dewpoints) beneath modestly steep midlevel
lapse rates (per latest MSY ACARS sounding) is supporting isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a stationary
boundary draped across LA this afternoon/early evening. Regional VWP
data along with the aforementioned ACARS sounding indicate a
long/mostly straight mid/upper-level hodograph (characterized by
50-55 kt effective shear) and weakly veering low-level flow. Given
this parameter space and weak large-scale ascent over the area, a
couple discrete/semi-discrete supercell structures capable of
marginally severe hail and/or a damaging gust or two are possible
this afternoon/early evening. While low-level flow could strengthen
into this evening ahead of an approaching midlevel trough crossing
the central Plains, the overall severe threat appears too
marginal/localized for a watch.

...Weinman/Edwards.. 03/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4i3kTIvFagFnjtkjVsIaayMVYwItR1XOjRHGmI6kgy9XleDK6Q19ULNFz_3HaMoyj-y_win94=
qMWOWTsTEvXni4Zou4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29689140 29619239 29709295 29789329 30199333 30479306
            30739238 31069084 31169015 31168977 31088939 30738925
            30188938 29958980 29779080 29689140=20


=3D =3D =3D
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