Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 27 2023 20:02:01 ACUS01 KWNS 272001 SWODY1 SPC AC 272000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Gulf Coast to the Southeast States through tonight. A Marginal Risk was added for parts of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas. See MCD 376 for additional details on the afternoon threat. This threat will persist into the overnight period as a front moves south through the region elevated instability. A few thunderstorms have developed in west-central North Carolina. However, relatively warm mid-level temperatures seem to have mitigated updraft intensity thus far. Expect storms to mostly remain below severe limits through the afternoon/evening. See MCD 375 for additional details. Otherwise, adjusted the Marginal and Slight Risk slightly farther south in Georgia and southeast Alabama to account for the current frontal position as storms and the front continue to shift south. ...Bentley.. 03/27/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023/ ....Southeast States... Clusters of storms continue to be focused along a composite outflow-reinforced boundary that extends from southeast Alabama across central Georgia/southern South Carolina as of midday. Even while the primary embedded shortwave trough shifts away toward the Atlantic, diurnal heating and cloud breaks should allow for a gradual intensification of storms through the afternoon, with multicellular clusters of storms common. Isolated instances of damaging winds can be expected through early evening with the strongest storms. A tornado cannot be entirely discounted across parts of Georgia/southern South Carolina, but weakening winds in the 1-2 km AGL layer should limit such potential. ....Southeast Texas and Louisiana... The cold front should stall along southern Louisiana/upper Texas coastal areas today, with isolated severe storms possible mainly across southern Louisiana today. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 373 for additional details. Weak low-level isentropic ascent will otherwise increase on the cool side of the frontal zone tonight, peripherally influenced by a shortwave trough moving across the central Great Plains. Below-average confidence continues in terms of the timing/placement of most probable convective development. Regardless, substantial speed shear in the mid to upper-levels will foster a straight-line hodograph. In conjunction with modest elevated buoyancy, a few supercells with mid-level rotation will probably form within a spatially-uncertain mesoscale corridor tonight in vicinity of the upper Texas coast. Isolated large hail is the most probable hazard. ....Texas Edwards Plateau/central Texas vicinity... There are some indications that a couple of marginally severe elevated storms could develop across the region late this afternoon/early evening, with modest moisture/buoyancy supporting this potential. At this time, the potential for organized/sustained severe storms is still expected to remain low. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .