Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0376
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 27 2023 19:03:01

ACUS11 KWNS 271902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271902=20
TXZ000-272100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Areas affected...Southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271902Z - 272100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may intensify enough
to pose a hail threat this afternoon. Additional thunderstorms along
the Rio Grande are possible late afternoon/evening and may also pose
a severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms developing over the Edwards
Plateau within a modest regime of low-level warm air/moisture return
have quickly intensified over the past hour. Small hail has been
reported with one supercell southwest of the San Angelo area, and
recent MRMS hail parameters suggest at least sporadic severe hail is
possible with the developing cells. Despite relatively cool/dry
conditions at the surface and modest buoyancy profiles, strong flow
over the region (as sampled by recent KSJT VWP observations) is
supporting elongated, nearly straight hodographs within the
effective layer. This will continue to support the potential for
splitting supercells through the afternoon amid persistent lift and
limited most-unstable inhibition. The limited buoyancy (around 500
J/kg MUCAPE within the region of greatest ascent based off visible
satellite trends) limits confidence in the longevity and spatial
extent of the threat, though a few instances of severe hail appear
possible through the late afternoon.=20

Further south along the Rio Grande, better low-level moisture will
support surface-based parcels with MLCAPE upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg.
Visible imagery shows a cluster of deepening cumulus along the
Sierra del Carmen mountains in northern Mexico. Thunderstorms
developing out of this cluster may intensify if they can be
sustained long enough to reach the higher-quality moisture across
the international border. While this scenario is somewhat
conditional, a severe hail/wind risk may materialize this later this
afternoon.

...Moore/Guyer.. 03/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-zIrbXNRxpSYrw6m9Jpg_GpUEgxDmQY6XTcim-OomO_QpOaNry98X0AL2vYUdsiyI4ei5Qxdo=
B-C1LndSNr1UKguhHQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30419944 29999992 29480017 29050022 28800043 28740070
            29100096 29440133 29630171 29700201 30080212 30490208
            30920196 31300183 31750118 32150011 32229968 32119919
            31859874 31509840 31129833 30769868 30419944=20


=3D =3D =3D
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