Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0375
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 27 2023 18:31:32

ACUS11 KWNS 271831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271830=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-272030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Areas affected...Carolina Piedmont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271830Z - 272030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An instance or two of large hail is possible across the
Carolina Piedmont this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies have allowed temperatures across the
Piedmont to reach the mid 70s this afternoon. These temperatures,
combined with dewpoints in low 60s, are supporting modest buoyancy
ahead of the cold front approaching the region. Recent mesoanalysis
estimates MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. Given the presence of warm
temperatures aloft and negligible large-scale forcing for ascent,
buoyancy will likely remain limited. In contrast in modest
instability, vertical shear is strong. Instability will likely
remain the limiting factor, with warm temperatures aloft mitigating
updraft strength and duration. That being said, should an updraft
mature, the strength of the vertical shear suggests some hail would
be possible.

...Mosier/Guyer.. 03/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4U6mcQkb0n-gp47ndNKSvAHTJQH_R2plZyptm9hZOV1CrOcSzt4GrfOZElqMTlCKDP0C3QtjS=
vAC1sWUsBzPoIUYDTg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35888123 36438009 36307935 35827923 34708075 34968226
            35888123=20


=3D =3D =3D
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