Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 27 2023 16:35:02 ACUS01 KWNS 271634 SWODY1 SPC AC 271633 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Gulf Coast to the Southeast States through tonight. ....Southeast States... Clusters of storms continue to be focused along a composite outflow-reinforced boundary that extends from southeast Alabama across central Georgia/southern South Carolina as of midday. Even while the primary embedded shortwave trough shifts away toward the Atlantic, diurnal heating and cloud breaks should allow for a gradual intensification of storms through the afternoon, with multicellular clusters of storms common. Isolated instances of damaging winds can be expected through early evening with the strongest storms. A tornado cannot be entirely discounted across parts of Georgia/southern South Carolina, but weakening winds in the 1-2 km AGL layer should limit such potential. ....Southeast Texas and Louisiana... The cold front should stall along southern Louisiana/upper Texas coastal areas today, with isolated severe storms possible mainly across southern Louisiana today. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 373 for additional details. Weak low-level isentropic ascent will otherwise increase on the cool side of the frontal zone tonight, peripherally influenced by a shortwave trough moving across the central Great Plains. Below-average confidence continues in terms of the timing/placement of most probable convective development. Regardless, substantial speed shear in the mid to upper-levels will foster a straight-line hodograph. In conjunction with modest elevated buoyancy, a few supercells with mid-level rotation will probably form within a spatially-uncertain mesoscale corridor tonight in vicinity of the upper Texas coast. Isolated large hail is the most probable hazard. ....Texas Edwards Plateau/central Texas vicinity... There are some indications that a couple of marginally severe elevated storms could develop across the region late this afternoon/early evening, with modest moisture/buoyancy supporting this potential. At this time, the potential for organized/sustained severe storms is still expected to remain low. ...Guyer/Moore.. 03/27/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .