Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0373
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 27 2023 16:24:31

ACUS11 KWNS 271624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271623=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-271830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana into southern Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271623Z - 271830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely linger
through the late morning into the afternoon hours. Some
intensification is possible owing to diurnal warming, but weak
forcing for ascent and storm interactions will likely limit overall
storm intensity/longevity. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery has shown a slight uptick in
convective intensity over the past hour across parts of southeast LA
into southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent ACARS
soundings from along the northern Gulf Coast show deep
boundary-layer moisture with mid-level lapse rates near 6.5-7 C/km,
adequate to support MLCAPE values on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg.
Buoyancy should gradually increase through the day as filtered solar
heating drives warming surface temperatures into the upper 70s and
perhaps low 80s by late afternoon. Furthermore, 40-50 knot mid-level
winds sampled in recent VWP observations suggest deep-layer shear is
adequate to support organized convection.=20

These thermodynamic/kinematic trends are favorable for organized
convection, though weak forcing for ascent along residual outflow
boundaries and/or a weak cold front (evident just to the north of
ongoing convection in visible imagery) and the potential for
training convection/destructive storm interactions may modulate the
overall severe threat. The general expectation is for continued
convective development through the afternoon with transient
supercells capable of damaging winds and/or severe hail. Watch
issuance is not anticipated given the concerns regarding storm
longevity and coverage.

...Moore/Guyer.. 03/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7kFvXrJOtdJ6DZDOYmGEjI5Adi3baNH2QHuaOgNqg5nFCKCcY7XMMCGiA11AqDrLHZr-oATOf=
b9BoW8kz5PI84esThs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30019123 30279105 31458800 31628738 31378698 30918665
            30578659 30288678 30158706 29129000 29089029 29109061
            29179080 29329112 29719126 30019123=20


=3D =3D =3D
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