Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 27 2023 12:53:29 ACUS01 KWNS 271253 SWODY1 SPC AC 271251 Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... CORRECTED FOR RISK HEADLINE ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Gulf Coast to Southeast States through early Tuesday. The greatest concentration of damaging winds into this afternoon is expected from southern South Carolina to southeast Georgia. ....Southeast... Remnant clusters persist across central portions of GA/AL along and north of larger-scale west/east-oriented convective outflow, with renewed convective development southwest to the central Gulf Coast ahead of a cold front impinging from the northwest. To this south of the outflow boundary and east of the pre-frontal confluence band, surface temperatures in the low to mid 70s with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s have persisted across southern AL and the FL Panhandle, with less moisture farther east towards the GA coast. Broken warm-sector cloudiness should foster an uptick in convective coverage through late morning, before low-level convergence near the front diminishes this afternoon. Through the day, warm sector low-level winds will weaken from west to east as the peripheral influence of a shortwave trough over the Midwest moves towards the Northeast. Nevertheless, around 40 to 50-kt effective bulk shear should support transient supercell structures in the more vigorous updrafts. While overall threat magnitude may remain on the marginal side, occasional bouts of damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two may occur, focused on southeast AL to southern SC. ....Southeast TX and LA... The trailing extension of the cold front should stall today along the northwest Gulf Coast. Weak low-level isentropic ascent will occur to the cool side of the frontal zone tonight, peripherally influenced by a shortwave trough moving across the central Great Plains. Guidance differs with potential advancement of the surface front overnight, with the 06Z NAM inland while the 09Z RAP suggests the boundary will be progressively nudged offshore as surface ridging builds down the Sabine Valley. In addition, given the relatively weak forcing for ascent, below-average confidence exists in the timing of convective development with some guidance as early as this evening and others holding off until overnight. These factors render low confidence in the overall severe threat, especially for hazards beyond hail. Nevertheless, substantial speed shear in the mid to upper-levels will foster a straight-line hodograph. In conjunction with modest elevated buoyancy, a few supercells with mid-level rotation will probably form within a spatially-uncertain mesoscale corridor tonight. Isolated large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Grams/Goss.. 03/27/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .