Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 27 2023 12:26:31 AWUS01 KWNH 271226 FFGMPD GAZ000-ALZ000-271630- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0139 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 825 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Areas affected...Eastern AL...Central GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 271225Z - 271630Z SUMMARY...Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning which will locally train over the same area. This will likely maintain areas of flash flooding for a few more hours, and especially for areas already hard hit by heavy rain over the last 24 hours. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a broken axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms continuing to impact portions of eastern AL and through much of central GA. The activity remains focused in a confluent southwest low-level flow pattern out ahead of a cold front with plenty of moisture and instability still advancing into the southern flank of the axis of convection. The latest RAP analysis shows MLCAPE values upstream over areas of eastern AL still on the order of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg with effective bulk shear of 50 to 60 kts, and this energy continues to favor organized convective development with a mixture of multicell and supercell convection. There is a fairly well-defined cold pool associated with the convection over central GA in particular, and the southern flank of the convective line should continue to intercept the southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts to encourage sustainable convective development over the next few hours. Gradually, the axis of convection should tend to lose some latitude as the activity builds farther south into the instability pool, but as this occurs, there will still be upstream convective development over areas of eastern AL that will progress through central GA and be capable of training over the same area. The PWs are on the order of 1.3 to 1.5 inches, and this coupled with the available moisture transport and degree of organized convection should still favor rainfall rates as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour. Additional rainfall amounts of as much as 2 to 4 inches will be possible by midday, with the heaviest totals again likely in a west to east stripe across central GA. Portions of the MPD area have received 4 to 8 inches of rain over the last 24 hours, and these additional rains this morning are likely to promote and maintain areas of flash flooding over the next few hours. However, conditions should gradually improve toward midday and beyond as the activity begins to settle farther south. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!94AzOA0eblsUg5rBHko9FIT6FLOk2t8AL1f7f--ApPni3lBjmN0K-zFOKNkfJx80eLWE= j7wnjzBrP0w99YgoR4CQlM0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33578246 33318194 32888209 32688327 32578411=20 32468535 32488612 32538645 32818640 33068593=20 33298513 33538389=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .