Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0371
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 27 2023 10:29:30

ACUS11 KWNS 271029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271028=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-271130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Areas affected...central Alabama to central Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271028Z - 271130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Persistent convection/convective redevelopment across the
central Alabama and western Georgia area continues, along with local
severe risk.  However, with threat expected to gradually diminish,
it appears that WW issuance may remain unnecessary early this
morning.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows storms continuing to develop across
the central Alabama region, and spreading eastward into Georgia,
near the surface wind shift/baroclinic zone.  Near and to the south
of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 are
helping to maintain a broad zone of 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer
CAPE, which continues to fuel the convective redevelopment within a
zone of weak warm advection/QG ascent.

However, the other contributor to this zone of QG ascent -- a
mid-level perturbation moving across the southern Appalachian region
-- will continue to shift eastward this morning, away from the zone
of most favorable thermodynamics (central Alabama to central
Georgia.  As this occurs, and the low-level jet veers in response,
expect storms -- and associated/local severe risk -- to likewise
diminish gradually over the next few hours.

In the short term however, a limited/local but all-hazards severe
risk will continue, for another couple of hours.

...Goss/Grams.. 03/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4M2hOpcN3MzY2CgORkyjUJ-OsUxC4MvQs2JAf5G9I4EK_vWSkPV2geP2Ep7K90B93b4i1O5J7=
6Y1TcW6nMg-Jr4sp0I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON   32838686 33198619 33398441 33428352 33078330 32798341
            32668425 32698559 32838686=20


=3D =3D =3D
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