Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0370
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 27 2023 08:04:28

ACUS11 KWNS 270804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270804=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-271000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Areas affected...east-central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270804Z - 271000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for a tornado is locally enhanced over parts of
east-central Alabama and adjacent far west-central Georgia.  WW
issuance is not anticipated due to local nature of the risk.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface data indicates an outflow-enhanced,
west-to-east segment of the surface boundary lying across eastern
Georgia, where Auburn, AL and Columbus, GA obs sites show easterly
flow, with sites just to the south depicting southerlies.  This
boundary also marks the northern fringe of near 70 dewpoints, and
associated zone of maximized CAPE.

An earlier storm that moved through Macon County AL acquired
rotation in proximity to this boundary (around 0630Z), and now a
second storm has organized, as it shifted across northern Montgomery
County and now into Macon/far southeastern Elmore Counties.

This storm has acquired much stronger rotation than the earlier
storm, with 60 kt rotational velocity and a TDS (local minimum in
WSR-88D correlation coefficient) indicative of a potentially strong
tornado occurring at this time.

With that said, the area of maximized potential appears to be very
local, with uncertainty as to whether any additional storm will
occur within this small zone.  As such, WW issuance is not
anticipated at this time, but we will continue to monitor for any
signs of increasing potential over a broader geographic area.

...Goss/Grams.. 03/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Ezbqv1PLXg2ksEbM7XLfN3HQnUhKaPmrlQ8MUeVnKHPoHf8bOQIibDCJvvfLDz0XMF0r7SLC=
A8Z1VZmBBB4oBGML-0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON   32318644 32688592 32848536 32638477 32458487 32228609
            32318644=20


=3D =3D =3D
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