Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 27 2023 07:01:23

AWUS01 KWNH 270701
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-271030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0138
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Areas affected...Eastern SC...Far Southeast NC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270700Z - 271030Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms with history of 3-5" in 3hr pose
possible incidents of flash flooding through early morning hours
across Carolina Coastal Plain.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um loop shows solid line of cold
thunderstorm tops with embedded colder overshooting tops extending
from Lexington county, SC into Columbus county, NC.  The
orientation of the line continues to be parallel to the deeper
mean flow, while west-southwesterly isentropic ascent appears to
develop new updraft cores along while cold pools appear to be
advancing more eastward to keep the line stable for ideal training
of the strongest cores.

Strong moisture flux convergence signals pair 1.5-1.7" total PWATs
(mainly below 700mb per CIRA LPW), along 35-40kts of flow, with
speed convergence at the ascent boundary.  This has been
supporting 2"/hr rates, and while flow will veer with time, the
duration of the line appears to be 2+ hours which would suggest
potential for 3-5" axis across the Coastal Plain.   Compared to a
observations of 6" were observed near Gadsen, SC  with a few 3hr
observations near 3-4" near Sumter, SC.  While this heavy rainfall
will cross better infiltrating soils of the Coastal Plain, these
observations are nearing or slightly above FFG values across the
area, suggesting flash flooding will remain possible for the next
few hours into across Eastern SC into far Southeast NC.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7zX84kknJYNWpyByhcXmYCAkb6Qh0GsCrThkCwYbq7qgSPwy2c2ZZlBdLVgnCNes5f3E=
NZ1vgzlvaxysFsWE1scSoME$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...ILM...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34647890 34627770 34157769 33797794 33677894=20
            33597966 33508090 33658158 34298137 34528008=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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