Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0368
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 27 2023 04:00:25

ACUS11 KWNS 270400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270359=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-270600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...parts of northeast Georgia through central South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270359Z - 270600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm
development likely will persist into the 2-3 AM EDT time frame,
accompanied by at least some severe weather potential.  It is not
yet clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends will
continue to be monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...As the mesoscale convective vortex progresses
east-northeastward toward central Georgia, the associated convective
cluster in proximity to it seems likely to weaken due to inflow of
more modest CAPE.  But lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection
probably will maintain, or increase, convection within a corridor
downstream, from the northeastern Georgia Piedmont into the
northeastern South Carolina coastal plain through 06-07Z.  Modestly
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong convective-layer shear may
support the occasional development of embedded supercell structures,
mostly rooted above at least a shallow saturated near-surface layer
with lapse rates more stable than moist adiabatic, based on forecast
soundings.  Given this environment, the severe weather potential
seems likely to remain marginal and relatively localized in nature.

...Kerr/Thompson.. 03/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9m5c3oEN4luuTkdHuQJuFhCgCOaerGuPUfSNjBMFt7lgn7T5iTeGrjxv6o5myjnYNaMqMtBBU=
EybsvRlb1c41hl_rOI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   33998347 34428123 34137923 33337904 33328105 33248334
            33998347=20


=3D =3D =3D
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