Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 21:07:15

AWUS01 KWNH 262107
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-270100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0133
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...Southern AL...Southwest GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262100Z - 270100Z

SUMMARY...Lines of strong-to-severe thunderstorms may produce
flash flooding, particularly where training convection occurs.

DISCUSSION...20Z surface analysis continued to depict a surface
trough that remains the focus for ongoing bouts with convection.
As of 2030Z, storms continue to form along the trough and have
restrengthened as 850mb winds gradually increase out of the SW,
which is also introducing higher levels of 850mb moisture flux.
SPC mesoanlysis shows MLCAPE of 1,000-2,000 J/kg and PWs closing
in on 1.75" within the highlighted area. Mesoanalysis also shows
50-60 kts worth of sfc-6km wind shear and 200 m2/s2 of sfc-3km
SRH, which will help maintain areas of convection as 850mb low
level inflow continues to advect rich low-level moisture into the
region.

The 19Z HRRR shows 850mb winds strengthening up to 35 kts by this
evening, while the surface trough begins to slowly lift north.
Given the favorable setup for WSW 850-300mb mean flow running
parallel to the trough, training cells are likely to persist for a
couple hours with some backbuilding cells possible as far west as
southwest AL. Hourly rainfall rates up to 2"/hr are possible in
areas where training thunderstorms take shape. Low lying, poor
drainage areas as well as near creeks and in urbanized settings
are most prone to possible flash flooding.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8DCU5NKBl46eLFQDfyf-bofvEkQhB8N-xw1cW39hul_PXS3A5YxLmeuEWt1Yh6D9Aw9d=
Jw4iN4IcsbBQlXFDAXjyT9M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33048403 32718348 31668419 31108525 30978692=20
            31568749 32008733 32398650 32778514=20

=3D =3D =3D
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