Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0359
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 20:06:53

ACUS11 KWNS 262006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262006=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-262200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...Central and Southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 262006Z - 262200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will rapidly increase in the next few hours
across parts of Mississippi.  Very large hail and tornadoes will be
possible.  A new watch will be issued within the hour.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating has been occurring today across central
and southern MS, where temperatures have risen well into the 80s.  A
surface warm front is lifting northward across the region, allowing
70s dewpoints to spread into central MS.  This is yielding MLCAPE
values around 3000 J/kg with minimal cap.  Several intense
severe/supercell storms have developed over western/central LA that
will track eastward into MS beginning after 4pm.  Other isolated
cells are likely to form out ahead of this activity through the
evening.=20=20

Forecast soundings indicate an environment very favorable for
discrete supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes.=20
Low-level winds will strengthen rapidly by late afternoon/early
evening.  This may also increase the risk of strong tornadoes -
especially for those storms that can track in vicinity of the
surface warm front.

A tornado watch will be issued within the hour.

...Hart/Guyer.. 03/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8CAxeZIJpnMT4qjyJdtrJ5WrivHkIpVe-rkN62fRgh4Yy34TrN8JbPAGB81waeUOu4fpE0Nrw=
BOvcRNfaE1bUH3nT5A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32679195 32858885 32198843 30748885 30569184 32679195=20


=3D =3D =3D
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