Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 19:43:53 ACUS01 KWNS 261943 SWODY1 SPC AC 261942 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA... ....SUMMARY... Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist into tonight across a broad portion of the Deep South/Southeast States. A few strong tornadoes and very large hail may occur with the most intense storms, particularly from central Louisiana across central/southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening. ....20Z Update... Two strong supercells have developed in far southeast Texas and should maintain themselves as they move east. The low-level jet is only around 25 knots per the LCH 18Z RAOB and the POE VWP. However, this flow is expected to increase to around 35 knots by 22Z. Therefore, the tornado threat is expected to increase once these storms reach eastern Louisiana and into Mississippi. See MCD 357 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. A cluster of supercells has developed farther north across north-central Louisiana. Storm interference will likely keep the severe threat somewhat muted, but some large hail is possible from this activity. Additional supercells may develop across eastern Louisiana and central Mississippi this afternoon along and to the south of a frontal zone in the region. These storms will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including tornadoes, some strong. Ongoing supercells across southern Alabama and vicinity are expected to continue through the afternoon and into the evening with mostly a large hail threat. See MCD 358 for additional details. A few damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado remain possible across Northeast Illinois/northern Indiana. See MCD 356 for additional information. ...Bentley.. 03/26/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023/ ....Deep South/Southeast... Some severe potential, mostly in the form of hail/wind, may continue early this afternoon across the South Carolina Piedmont/southern North Carolina. This environment also remains conditionally favorable for a few severe storms to the west across southeast Mississippi, south-central Alabama, into west-central Georgia near the effective front. This sub-regional corridor may be experiencing a bout of shortwave ridging, but that at the same time, the boundary layer will continue to diurnally destabilize. Focus then quickly turns farther west to the potential for deep convective development along the northward-shifting boundary from east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, which could potentially occur relatively early, during early/mid-afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 354 for more short-term details. Low-level shear/SRH will not initially be strong but strengthen through late afternoon/early evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds increase and low-level hodographs enlarge. Storms, including initially semi-discrete/intense supercells, will tend to cluster/gradually grow upscale along the boundary with hail/wind potential, but an increased concern for tornadoes, some of which may be strong/intense (EF2+), would exist with supercells that evolve/persist in a semi-discrete manner south of the boundary and move into and/or develop across south-central/southeast Mississippi, and eventually southwest/southern Alabama this evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds further intensify. ....Illinois/Indiana... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across eastern/northeast Illinois as a low-amplitude shortwave trough overspreads this region. Although low-level moisture should remain limited, enough weak instability should still develop through the day as mid-level temperatures cool with the shortwave trough passage. With some enhanced low/mid-level flow forecast, any convection that can develop and be sustained may pose an isolated damaging wind risk, and perhaps a brief tornado across north-central/northeast Illinois. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .