Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0358
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 19:08:01

ACUS11 KWNS 261907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261907=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-262100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...Southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 86...

Valid 261907Z - 262100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 86
continues.

SUMMARY...Transient strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely
through the next several hours across southern Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, including a couple
of supercells, continue across portions of southern AL and the FL
Panhandle. The strongest of these have featured organized
mesocyclones, but have thus far largely struggled to maintain
intensity for longer than 60 minutes. This is likely due to
relatively weak forcing for ascent given the displacement of
larger-scale ascent to the west across east TX/LA. Based off recent
surface observations and satellite trends, most lift has been
focused along the residual stationary boundary and/or weak
confluence zone within a modest warm advection regime near the
surface. Consequently, individual storm longevity is relatively
uncertain.

Despite this concern, recent observed 18 UTC soundings from LIX and
TLH show ample buoyancy across the warm sector (1500-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE) with minimal inhibition and 45 knots of effective bulk
shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment is very conducive
for severe convection in the presence of sufficient ascent. The
expectation over the next several hours is for continued development
of isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a few transient
supercells capable of severe hail/wind.

...Moore.. 03/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8hvY7of5wlwHpKIkw49XSLRsDMRXyueY-wUL5sMlFJuKoY0jC6ABtG1MUoZWiAxpnyIN0uqhm=
yzlVHG-bcdO53HTc5c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30338842 30728857 31118853 31488839 31768808 31878788
            32268672 32328647 32498600 32578565 32568539 32498524
            32338517 32098511 31418504 31178505 30898507 30728515
            30488527 30368549 30358570 30358604 30398653 30408697
            30338737 30268762 30198792 30178811 30238830 30338842=20


=3D =3D =3D
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