Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0357
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 18:59:22

ACUS11 KWNS 261859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261858=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-262030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...East Texas...Western Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 87...

Valid 261858Z - 262030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 87 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of very large hail and tornadoes is increasing
over parts of WW87.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell has become established over Tyler
County TX, moving east-northeastward at around 35 knots.  This storm
is tracking roughly along the surface warm front that extends
eastward to just south of AEX.  Surface dewpoints have risen to near
70F, along with substantial surface heating and backed near-surface
winds.  The KPOE VAD profile currently indicates over 300 m2/s2 of
0-3km SRH, with STP values of 2-3 to the south.  This environment
suggests the potential that this storm will intensify further and
track into central LA over the next couple of hours.  Very large
hail and tornadoes will be possible.  While the strongest low-level
winds are yet to develop and will focus farther east, a strong
tornado cannot be ruled out in the shorter-term.

...Hart.. 03/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6ohBmUleg188SqvsBqG0v-w6kBERDtbX-xujx_nXdSqL9oklLRsm_w8EtcLPrGaQVfRnugRRf=
aHxFt-LFo6res8DwDo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30439445 32149372 32549226 31689228 30789265 30479311
            30439445=20


=3D =3D =3D
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