Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0356
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 18:41:51

ACUS11 KWNS 261841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261841=20
INZ000-ILZ000-262045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Illinois into northwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261841Z - 262045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop within the next 2-3
hours and may pose some risk of damaging winds and a brief tornado.
Given the localized nature of the threat and limited convective
environment, a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows cumulus
congestus gradually building along a warm front from central IL into
northwest IN, as well as a shallow cumulus field along a surface
trough draped into eastern MO. While buoyancy is currently limited
based on latest modified forecast soundings, a mid-level vorticity
maximum (evident in water-vapor imagery) continues to move into the
region, and will help overspread cold mid-level temperatures over
through the late afternoon hours. This will aid in augmenting
instability despite cool/dry surface conditions. Mixed-layer CAPE is
forecast to increase to around 500 J/kg by the 19-22 UTC period, and
should be adequate for convective initiation as lift continues along
the aforementioned boundaries. Strong flow associated with the
approaching vorticity maxima will help elongate hodographs with
effective shear near 50 knots. Organized convection is possible, and
steep low-level lapse rates will support a damaging wind threat.
Additionally, low-level helicity may be sufficient along the surface
warm front to support a brief tornado or two. Overall, the meager
buoyancy and limited spatial extent of the threat preclude the need
for watch issuance.

...Moore/Guyer.. 03/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6cw5cvN0mmo-oYLTHmAbg9n9l4ATdHiKtTHIYwntx23UP_9sKJhH3Mb9qzNGFh9APJiLg0S4v=
JLT06Z9QAIlYv6RMnw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41668755 41638683 41588648 41438622 41128607 40678627
            40138667 39728710 39428748 39188798 38918841 38558918
            38618954 38858972 39298953 39988936 40338934 40698934
            41198940 41478925 41598886 41668755=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.