Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 17:29:48 ACUS02 KWNS 261729 SWODY2 SPC AC 261728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast Monday afternoon with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across central Texas Monday evening, and the Gulf Coast Monday night. Large hail and occasional damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms. ....Synopsis... Mostly zonal flow is expected across the southern Plains into the Southeast on Monday with neutral height falls/rises expected across the region. A surface low will move off the North Carolina coast near mid-day Monday with a cold front extending southwest to southern MS/AL where it is expected to become stationary and extend back into central Texas. This frontal zone will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms during the day Monday and into Monday night/Tuesday morning. ....Southern Georgia and Vicinity... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from east-central Alabama into northern Georgia along the cold front. South of this cold front, temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 70s to near 80 with dewpoints in the mid 60s, yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. This instability will support strengthening of ongoing storms and new development along the front. Long/straight hodographs will favor splitting supercells, with the right-movers favored due to storm motion off of/ahead of the front. Veering of surface flow as temperatures warm and the boundary layer mixes should mitigate the tornado threat with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threat. ....Central Texas into the Gulf Coast... A large hail threat may develop Monday afternoon across central Texas in a region of weak isentropic ascent with MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. If forcing is sufficient for storm development, 90 kts of LCL-EL shear will support supercells with the potential for large hail. Most 12Z CAM guidance shows storms in the region, but intensity is relatively muted. Nonetheless, given the environment, at least isolated large hail is possible. Overnight, a surface high pressure center will move into the northern Plains. This will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across the southern Plains and advance the surface front southward. As this front moves south into a progressively more unstable airmass, thunderstorm chances increase. MUCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg is expected from central Texas to the Louisiana coast with moderate mid-level flow providing ample shear for storm organization. Therefore, a conditional supercell threat is possible from central Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Most storms will likely be elevated due to the front as the primary forcing mechanism and its southward movement during the early morning hours on Tuesday. However, some guidance has a few cells developing ahead of the front and remaining surface based for an hour or two. ...Bentley.. 03/26/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .