Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0354
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 15:46:19

ACUS11 KWNS 261546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261545=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-261745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 261545Z - 261745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form relatively
soon over southeast TX, moving into western LA before 3pm.=20
Supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible.  A WW may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor loops show subtle shortwave trough moving
across central TX.  Lift in advance of this feature will begin
affecting southeast TX in the next 1-2 hours, leading to scattered
thunderstorm development.  A surface warm front is lifting slowly
northward across this area, providing the leading edge of near-70F
dewpoints and ample CAPE.  Strengthening southeasterly low-level
winds ahead of the upper trough, combined with the favorable
thermodynamic environment, suggest the potential for supercells
capable of large hail and a tornado or two.  The primary severe
threat is likely to evolve farther east and later this afternoon
over LA, but the initial storms may pose sufficient risk to require
a WW.

...Hart/Guyer.. 03/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7fZ1bASEraxlBJCM-v7KLIl96Vv0OLs0-N0UTAvKC1VN2U8IoeCJj-ix2tBUZGcTXmlT0WLzw=
iJvFl0q_9hWWyAvyps$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   31069537 31969431 31689321 30719315 29989374 29629522
            30169567 31069537=20


=3D =3D =3D
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