Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 14:32:09 AWUS01 KWNH 261432 FFGMPD GAZ000-ALZ000-262030- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0131 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1030 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Areas affected...Central/Eastern AL through Western/Central GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 261430Z - 262030Z SUMMARY...Training showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall rates are expected to continue going through the early to mid-afternoon hours. Areas of flash flooding are likely given the high rates and storm persistence. DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery continue to show an axis of strong to severe thunderstorms traversing the South and advancing well into adjacent areas of the Southeast with close proximity to a well-defined quasi-stationary front. The latest GOES IR/WV imagery in conjunction with early morning CIRA-ALPW data shows that the shortwave perturbation helping to drive this morning's well-organized convective outbreak is still in the process of crossing AL/GA and should still be in a position to interact with the front and the very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment along it moving forward over the next several hours. Moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg are in place across central/eastern AL and through central GA with effective bulk shear values of 45 to 55 kts. The most organized clustering of convection by midday and through early afternoon should be advancing downstream increasingly into the interior of the Southeast including SC and possibly southern NC. However, there should remain enough forcing along the front even through early to mid-afternoon to maintain a threat of additional showers and thunderstorms from eastern AL through central GA which will impact and locally train over areas that have already seen heavy rain this morning. Given the high rainfall rates occasionally reaching 2 inches/hour, and the cell-training threat, additional rainfall amounts of as much as 3 to 4 inches of rain may occur locally through mid-afternoon. The greatest area of concern for this will be across western and central GA where there are already flash flooding concerns ongoing, but the threat will exist back to the west over eastern AL as well. Thus, expecting a regional threat of flash flooding to be likely over the next several hours. WPC will be highlighting portions of central/eastern AL and western/central GA in a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with the 1600Z midday update, and this will also account for additional heavy convective rainfall potential for later today and this evening. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-O2KDJiWM5mEJSXi-nrKws3hXNX7jk5deYLSoSe77STpABUsRTprkipkrz_W8AKymMoQ= sujDYYMnDS0s5vQsgvooiE8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...FFC... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33568291 33478241 33028237 32728312 32508433=20 32388526 32228648 32198723 32448730 32748687=20 33078591 33308504 33458409=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .