Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0352
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 13:43:51

ACUS11 KWNS 261343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261343=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-261545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...Eastern South Carolina...Southeast North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 261343Z - 261545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently affecting central SC will track
eastward into eastern SC and southeast NC this morning.  While
isolated cells may produce hail, it is uncertain whether storms will
warrant a watch.  Trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Radar loops show numerous strong/severe storms
extending from the CAE area westward into north-central GA.  These
storms have resulted in several reports of large hail overnight.=20
The subtle southwesterly low-level jet max that has helped to
sustain this activity is shifting eastward and will result in storms
building into discussion area by late morning.  Mid-level lapse
rates are steep, and combined with ample low-level moisture and
favorable shear profiles, there is a risk of supercell structures
capable of large hail.  However, recent trends in IR cloud tops,
MESH cores, and unfavorable time-of-day all lend uncertainty whether
storms will maintain robust severe threat in the short-term.  Trends
will be monitored for whether a new watch will be needed.

...Hart/Guyer.. 03/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5IfeNfQNM-oQNfQ5y4lXslmi-oQ2wb9q-t34IXRor9M7UCmYR6pAbMaw8QHHy8e-oAh8sN702=
3TyAPp3rSiPV41C9sQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

LAT...LON   34298054 34677874 34487726 34107718 33417840 33167921
            33748041 34298054=20


=3D =3D =3D
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