Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 13:24:09 AWUS01 KWNH 261324 FFGMPD NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-261915- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0130 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 923 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Areas affected...Eastern GA through Central SC and far Southern NC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 261315Z - 261915Z SUMMARY...An axis of training showers and thunderstorms will advance across areas of eastern GA through central SC and possibly into far southern NC through the early afternoon hours. Areas of flash flooding will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a well-organized axis of strong to severe convection advancing across the South and advancing quickly into downstream areas of the Southeast with a focus along and just ahead of quasi-stationary front draped across the region. Very cold convective tops including numerous overshooting tops have been accompanying the activity, and reflective in conjunction with radar imagery of a number of supercell thunderstorms. The airmass along and south of the boundary is moderate to strongly unstable with MLCAPE values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg and overlapping with a strongly sheared vertical column as indicated by effective bulk shear values of 50 to 60 kts. The airmass is quite moist in the low-levels with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, and supporting overall PWs of 1.25+ inches. This coupled with a weak low amplitude shortwave perturbation advancing into the Southeast should maintain a well-organized axis of convection over the next several hours, with activity aligning itself from eastern GA through central SC, and potentially getting into far southern NC by early this afternoon. Generally, the HRRR guidance and overnight hires CAMs have been way too slow to initiate/organize this morning's convection and advance it downstream into the Southeast. The alignment of the ongoing activity with the deeper layer mean flow strongly supports training convective cells, and despite the amount of hail occurring with the morning supercell convection, there have been rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches/hour being observed. The 06Z HREF tends to support the heavier rainfall rates over the next several hours eventually focusing more across areas of central SC in particular, but the radar trends strongly favor central to eastern GA seeing persistently high rainfall rates as well that will occasionally approach or locally exceed 2 inches/hour. Expect some storm totals over the next 6 hours to reach as high as 3 to 5 inches given the strong training character of the convection. Antecedent soil conditions are dry, but with locally significant cell-training expected, high rainfall rates, and persistence of these rates, areas of flash flooding will be possible. The urban corridors in particular will be susceptible to runoff concerns and this will include the Columbia, SC metropolitan area. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!624l8TmnIYX6HX5Baxu414xnRu5I3uLW_hym7BuFVDvgq7Gdt-a5Dp6lxRhR0L6p6Cjh= dD1SzzrbDt0ooknBBQBoVGA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...RAH... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34687875 34087852 33597951 33248072 32988228=20 33048311 33178332 33528304 33788301 33958271=20 34198198 34358123 34637989=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .