Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 12:37:47 ACUS01 KWNS 261237 SWODY1 SPC AC 261236 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL LA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL... ....SUMMARY... Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist through at least this evening across a large swath of the Southeast States. A few strong tornadoes and very large hail should accompany the most intense storms, particularly from central Louisiana across central to southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama. ....Southeast... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are anticipated this morning through at least this evening, before likely waning overnight. Round one will be associated with a mix of supercells and clusters near a quasi-stationary front through central portions of AL/GA. The leading portion of this activity will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a forward-propagating MCS across the Savannah Valley to the coastal Carolinas before it progresses offshore in the early afternoon. Pervasive warm-sector cloud cover should slow boundary-layer heating and may limit a more widespread severe wind threat. Nevertheless, ample buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and around 50-kt effective bulk shear will support potential for a couple tornadoes, along with a mix of large hail and damaging winds. In the wake of this leading activity, weak low-level isentropic ascent should persist across residual composite front/outflow. This should be sufficient to sustain regenerative supercell development focused on central AL, while warm-sector low-level confluence will probably support scattered storms emanating from the central Gulf Coast. With upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points common across this region, even limited boundary-layer heating will support a persistent severe threat. However, bulk of guidance suggests low-level hodograph curvature within the warm sector should remain modest until this evening, lowering confidence in a more substantial tornado threat through mid-afternoon. A third corridor of significant severe potential should evolve across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys this afternoon and evening. Below-average confidence exists in more specific timing this afternoon given the large spread in guidance with handling the initially weak forcing for ascent via low-level warm advection. Even so, low-level wind fields will strengthen into late afternoon in response to a shortwave trough ejecting from the Southwest to the Mid-MS Valley. This should support peak tornado potential during the late afternoon to early evening, particularly where semi-discrete supercells can become anchored along pre-existing outflow boundaries as the largest buoyancy today is expected to develop across southeast LA and southern MS. The setup will support potential for a few intense supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail. With time, convection should consolidate into at least a small MCS, propagating eastward along the composite front/large-scale outflow this evening with a mix of all hazards anticipated. ....IL/IN... Low-topped thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across eastern IL as a low-amplitude shortwave trough overspreads this region. Although low-level moisture should remain limited, enough weak instability should still develop through the day as mid-level temperatures cool with the shortwave trough passage. With some enhanced low/mid-level flow forecast, any convection that can develop and be sustained may pose an isolated damaging wind risk. ...Grams/Goss.. 03/26/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .