Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0347
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 08:49:48

ACUS11 KWNS 260849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260849=20
NCZ000-261045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0347
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 260849Z - 261045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Local severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail -- will
exist over the next few hours across parts of eastern North
Carolina.  The expected isolated -- and largely marginal -- nature
of the threat suggests that WW issuance will likely not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated convection having
increased in intensity somewhat over the past hour across eastern
portions of North Carolina, near and ahead of the surface cold
front.

The pre-frontal warm sector -- featuring 500 to 1500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE -- will support a continuation of storms, as they
gradually shift eastward and eventually move offshore over the next
few hours.  Until then, strong/unidirectional westerly flow aloft is
supporting shear supportive of organized updrafts/mid-level
rotation, which will permit a continuation of local severe potential
-- mainly in the form of marginally severe hail.

...Goss/Grams.. 03/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5EJjCOFfWfu9Tw6TZo_R6QWrXex1AMQAbSXJt9eC4e9QTtnfENAFM1exaW9s80K7lH3VBPFub=
_9UghHQF8FRmeOWeMw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   36037560 35337569 34727651 34507771 34657878 35097927
            35827729 36457627 36037560=20


=3D =3D =3D
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