Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0346
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 06:56:15

ACUS11 KWNS 260656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260655=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-260900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...central and southern Mississippi into parts of
southeastern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 260655Z - 260900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk is expected to gradually increase across
central and southern Mississippi and adjacent parts of southeastern
Louisiana over the next few hours.  WW issuance may be required.

DISCUSSION...As a zone of weak ascent -- evident in latest water
vapor loop over the Arklatex vicinity at this time -- continues
shifting eastward, some northward retreat of a remnant baroclinic
zone over southern Mississippi/southern Louisiana is expected.  The
ascent -- focused in the vicinity of this front -- will likely
support at least isolated storm development over the next several
hours.=20=20

Latest model data and RAP-based objective analysis reveals a
moderately unstable environment, owing to a very moist low-level
airmass beneath steep lapse rates through most of the lower and
middle troposphere.  This combined with relatively strong mid-level
west-southwesterlies suggests that any storms which do develop would
have the potential to organize into supercells -- with large hail a
primary concern.  We will continue to monitor the latest data for
signs of imminent updraft development, with an eye toward possible
WW issuance.

...Goss/Grams.. 03/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4QpmzNm5COmMzbqSK_0vKWxIht3dwK5SBuLcoxlT15sR9ssS72YSF59LNvzWsoaaiUMggT3Ao=
PzQ2A-qnaT5nODlpiQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30649160 32209084 32768944 32938812 32028813 31208810
            30259005 30139119 30649160=20


=3D =3D =3D
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