Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 26 2023 05:30:14 ACUS02 KWNS 260530 SWODY2 SPC AC 260528 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast through Monday afternoon, and across parts of central Texas Monday evening. Strong, locally damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards with these storms. ....Synopsis... A broad upper trough will persist over much of the CONUS on Monday. An embedded shortwave in larger-scale flow over the Four Corners vicinity will pivot east toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity by Tuesday morning. A band of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow will continue to overlie the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. At the surface, an outflow boundary will extend from northern AL/GA into southeast NC. Meanwhile, a cold front will extend from western TN into central TX. This front will drift south through the period and be a focus for thunderstorm development from the Southeast/Gulf Coast states westward toward central TX. ....AL/GA into the Carolinas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the effective front across AL/GA/SC at the beginning of the period. Some uncertainty exists in the eastward extent of ongoing convection Monday morning, with some potential for strong storms extending into southeast NC. However, some guidance suggests convection will be offshore the NC coast by 12z. Across southeast AL into central/southern GA and parts of SC, 60s F surface dewpoints beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg. Furthermore, sufficient vertical shear will be in place for organized cells and clusters. Large-scale ascent will be somewhat nebulous, but convergence along the south/southeastward sagging cold front will aid in thunderstorm development through the afternoon/early evening. Low-level flow will be modest, with generally small surface-3 km hodographs. However, above 2-3 km, hodographs become elongated. Stronger cells and clusters may produce sporadic damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ....Central TX Vicinity... Easterly low-level winds will transport upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints westward across the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Strong heating and mixing near a quasi-triple point amid modest instability may support isolated thunderstorm development late Monday afternoon into the evening hours. Low-level winds will remain rather weak, but effective shear magnitudes will support higher-based supercells. Long, straight hodographs will favor hail production. Some forecast guidance suggest weak capping between 850-700 mb may limit convective coverage and the overall threat is somewhat conditional. However, if storms do develop, potential for large hail and locally strong gusts will exist. ...Leitman.. 03/26/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .