Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0341
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 25 2023 17:39:41

ACUS11 KWNS 251739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251739=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-251845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Georgia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79...

Valid 251739Z - 251845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 079, with damaging gusts the primary threat, though a brief
instance of hail or a tornado cannot be completely ruled out.
Convective development in the wake of earlier storms is more
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...A supercell thunderstorm continues to traverse southern
GA amid a destabilizing environment, but with weakening
deep-layer/low-level shear with a departing low-level jet and upper
support. The steepest low-level lapse rates across GA reside ahead
of the ongoing supercell, where damaging gusts are the most likely
threat, and where the overall severe threat is greatest. Still, a
brief instance of hail or a tornado cannot be ruled out. This storm
(and other nearby cells) should persist for at least a few more
hours. Behind this first round of convection, airmass recovery is
already underway, with surface temperatures already rising to the
80F mark, amid upper 60s F surface dewpoints, and an agitated CU
field present. Nonetheless, given the departing upper support,
robust storm redevelopment seems unlikely, at least in the short
term, as also suggested by some of the latest high-resolution model
guidance. There is a better chance of strong to severe storm
development later this evening into tonight.

...Squitieri.. 03/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!980EXRvUOJk3E87YmAZn54RpZVsfyFe-NebjFnwj4ti6BMLCRhXQEwJsZGbXuYqAEq8Tz5hYp=
fTSFOW8MCCday6Rl8c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   31118550 31498458 31738352 31768289 31718235 31658233
            31158250 30688280 30498319 30378373 30368428 30498488
            31118550=20


=3D =3D =3D
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