Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0340
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 25 2023 15:51:10

ACUS11 KWNS 251551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251550=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-251715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Ohio into extreme
northern West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251550Z - 251715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential should gradually increase through the day
in association with an eastward-progressing frontal band of
convection. Damaging gusts appear to be the main threat, though a
tornado or instance of marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.
Conditions are being monitored for the need of a WW.

DISCUSSION...A 992 mb, centered over south-central Lower MI,
continues to meander toward the north-northeast while deepening as a
100+ kt 500 mb jet streak overspreads the eastern OH Valley.
Coincidentally, ample diurnal heating with rapidly clearing skies is
contributing to destabilization of the boundary layer, with 0-3 km
lapse rates already reaching 7-8 C/km (per 15Z mesoanalysis). The
increasing deep-layer ascent and buoyancy is likely contributing to
a strengthening band of low-topped convection located ahead of a
surface cold front across western OH (MRMS mosaic radar imagery
shows 18-30 dBZ echoes reaching 20-25 kft, with lightning flashes
already evident).=20

Modest low-level moisture (surface dewpoints barely reaching 50 F)
amid relatively cool tropospheric temperatures suggests that MLCAPE
profiles will be thin/short, perhaps barely exceeding 500 J/kg. As
such, storms should remain low topped through the day. However, a
50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet overspread by the 100+ kt 500 mb
jet is supporting very strong unidirectional speed shear. Very long
hodographs with modest low-level curvature (evident in forecast
soundings and regional VADs) suggest that several strong,
potentially damaging gusts are possible, and that a tornado or brief
instance of hail cannot be ruled out.=20

Area will be upgraded to a Category 2/Slight Risk in the 1630Z
Convective Outlook, and will be monitored for the need of a WW.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 03/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-zZEAD3RK8gS3ePE_byIfafQ9mvU5GhS-d0r9xSigBWHrX-iGBllNdOpi7voKO5Uy2W943k9U=
MH9THaIWq7jbWDgSLE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   38588354 38768366 39428364 39948334 40738245 41278140
            41488064 41448052 41388014 41117982 40697965 40297975
            39828016 39248097 38798168 38508243 38368325 38588354=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.