Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0339
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 25 2023 14:38:39

ACUS11 KWNS 251438
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251438=20
GAZ000-251545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0339
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of central into southern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251438Z - 251545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe thunderstorms appear plausible
late this morning going into the afternoon hours. Damaging gusts and
perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats with the stronger
storms. Conditions are being monitored for the need of a possible
WW.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery has shown a steady increase
in storm intensities over the past hour or so, with multiple
updrafts showing 30 dBZ cores extending into the 35-45 kft range.
The intensification of the storms is coincident with increased
diurnal heating across portions of central and southern GA, where a
southwesterly low-level jet continues to advect low-level moisture.
The expectation is for surface temperatures to heat well into the
70s F amid upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints by late morning/early
afternoon, with MLCAPE likely exceeding 1500 J/kg. RAP forecast
soundings depict relatively steep 0-1 km lapse rates, overspread by
6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates in the low to mid-levels. As such,
efficient downward momentum transport may support a few damaging
gusts.

Within the past hour, a transient supercell may have spawned a
tornado in Houston County, AL (based on a possible TDS shown on KEOX
dual-polarimetric radar data). While an additional tornado or two
remain possible through the day, current regional VADs and RAP/NAM
forecast soundings depict modestly sized/curved low-level
hodographs, with a weakness noted in the 850-700 mb layer, driven by
the departure of the low-level jet. As such, the tornado threat may
be tempered by decreasing deep-layer ascent. Nonetheless, the
overall severe threat may be prevalent enough that a WW may be
needed.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 03/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6ZWgpIRmwWCtHbrIu1p_Gtn7FjqqllnTs7x9qrhUa0_06dI9RxbwNGzPA-C8TGuzEfdiZdnKD=
YZ6FQqPwdxw6haPlyk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   31178483 31748434 32498375 32878330 33078289 33098252
            32928197 32618168 32008160 31348186 30968242 30818333
            30728428 30768460 31178483=20


=3D =3D =3D
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