Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 25 2023 12:54:11 ACUS01 KWNS 251254 SWODY1 SPC AC 251252 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes between about 1 to 5 PM EDT. Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Southeast through Sunday morning. ....Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... A vigorous mid-level shortwave trough centered over IL will rapidly progress across the Lower Great Lakes through this evening. The trailing southeast portion of strong large-scale forcing for ascent should initially overlap a destabilizing air mass over OH towards midday. At least isolated low-topped convection should develop as meager buoyancy develops with MLCAPE of 200-500 J/kg. Despite veered low-level winds, very strong speed shear will support potential for a few discrete, low-topped supercells. Setup appears most likely to yield a marginal threat of all severe hazards for a few hours around peak heating from eastern OH and northern WV into western PA and southwest NY. ....Southeast... Below-average confidence exists in severe potential amid multiple rounds of thunderstorm possibilities through the period within relatively nebulous large-scale ascent. Morning to afternoon severe potential should be focused ahead of a lingering arc of convection from central GA to southeast AL, as low-level warm theta-e advection occurs from the west towards the GA/SC coast. Although much of the large-scale forcing for ascent will be displaced to the north of the region, the low-level moistening in conjunction with pockets of stronger diurnal heating should support an uptick in storm intensity. Veered low-level flow but adequate deep-layer shear could yield a few weak supercells with an isolated severe threat. Beginning this evening and persisting overnight, modest low-level isentropic ascent is anticipated along a quasi-stationary front from the southern Lower MS Valley through central GA. Ample PW will exist south of this baroclinic zone within a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from northeast Mexico across much of the northern Gulf. This will yield a corridor of moderate buoyancy persisting well into the overnight. The 00Z ECMWF and 06Z HRRR are most insistent on convective development, especially during the early morning along the front. Deep-layer shear profiles will conditionally favor a threat for a few supercells with large hail as the most probable hazard. ...Grams/Goss.. 03/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .