Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 25 2023 07:38:39

AWUS01 KWNH 250738
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-251100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0128
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Areas affected...Ext. East-Central MS to Northwest GA incl.
Central AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250740Z - 251100Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of weakening thunderstorms with a
favorable orientation for training/repeating may pose a low-end
risk of an isolated instance or two of flash flooding in the next
few hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV denote exiting convectively enhanced
shortwave lifting northeastward across central KY into WV.
Simultaneously, the upstream rear-inflow jet core is weakening
over the lower MS River Valley toward as as the next, flatter jet
streak approaches out of the Southern Plains.  The shortwave
ridging in between at the anticylonic rotor of these jet features
is driving a 850-700mb infection across central MS which appears
to be manifesting as an arc across E central MS within the
Reflectivity of the RADAR mosaic.   This inflection is pooling
deeper layer moisture and increased low level convergence along
and ahead of it, while weakening surface to boundary layer ascent
and weak cold pooling has left a linear convective line generally
parallel to the low level steering flow. As such, propagation
vectors toward the east should be slow to allow for a favorable
training/repeating profile across central AL into NW GA over the
next 2-4 hours, as this low to mid-level inflection slides
eastward.

To aid to the risk of isolated flash flooding, scattered cells
along and to the east of the remaining instability axis have
sufficient convergence to develop along and ahead of the weakening
squall line, increasing duration of heavier rain cores and
enhancing the chances of embedded 2-3" totals in central AL.=20

Drier ground conditions and reducing rates to more gentle
1-1.5"/hr rates leading to 2-3" totals over 3-4hrs.  This should
limit overall coverage of any flash flooding risk to one or two
incidents along this axis and likely low-end in magnitude, given
these rates and totals are at their respective limits with respect
to FFG (2.5-3"/3hrs).=20=20=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4PKlda81LwIgocS24To8XMMEqVCNBMDibUSbmWWaMPHnlDSH6Yajq-wZQMDCXXtjrzOI=
7TK3fAOmKjejEuQMUHO2uqQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34748539 34618475 34108474 33608481 33268537=20
            32978665 32728765 32698845 33108855 33648771=20
            34238645=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.