Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 25 2023 05:48:05 ACUS02 KWNS 250548 SWODY2 SPC AC 250546 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME EAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS/AL...CENTRAL GA AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from far east Texas and central Louisiana into southern and central Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia on Sunday. Large hail, damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes appear possible. ....Lower MS Valley/Southeast Vicinity... A challenging forecast scenario exists for Sunday across portions of the South. While some model variability still exists, consistency is better than 24 hours ago and an increase in severe probabilities appears warranted. A broad upper trough will envelop much of the CONUS, with a swath of fast deep-layer southwesterly flow stretching from the southern Plains through the southern/central states and the Eastern Seaboard. Large-scale ascent will remain somewhat nebulous with little opportunity for height falls. However, most guidance shows a series of weak shortwave impulses migrating through larger-scale flow from TX toward the Carolinas. A compact upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains will migrate toward Mid-MS Valley overnight. A stalled surface front is expected to extend from coastal NC into central GA Sunday morning. The location of the western portion of this boundary is uncertain, with guidance varying from southern AL/MS/LA to northern AL/MS/LA. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow and warm advection should allow the boundary to drift northward during the day, spreading mid-60s F dewpoints across the region. Additionally, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates is forecast to overspread the region. Where pockets of stronger heating occur, MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg are expected. Some convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning across GA into the Carolinas as an initial shortwave impulse shifts east/northeast over the area. Strong gusts will be possible with bowing segments. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop further west in the vicinity of the northward retreating warm front during the afternoon/evening. Low-level winds will be rather light, though quickly increase with height above 850 mb. Furthermore, a low-level jet is forecast to increase to around 35-45 kt during the evening. Vertical wind profiles will be largely unidirectional, and may support training convection/heavy rain, tempering the overall severe threat. However, some guidance shows enough speed/directional shear in the low level to foster enlarged and favorably curved hodographs in the vicinity of the warm front. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt also will promote organized convection. All severe hazards appear possible with more intense, sustained storms. However, weak low-level shear and largely boundary-parallel shear vectors may lead to more transient supercell structures. While uncertainty still remains, the overall parameter space supports a Slight risk. ...Leitman.. 03/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .